New York’s legal cannabis industry is projected to experience significant growth, with state regulators estimating that the number of licensed cannabis shops will increase from 275 to over 625 by 2025. This expansion reflects a booming market, as consumers spent more than $840 million on legal cannabis in 2024. When combined with sales from 2023, the total surpasses $1 billion, highlighting the sector’s rapid development.
The Office of Cannabis Management (OCM) anticipates that sales could exceed $1.5 billion in 2025, representing roughly double the previous year’s revenue. To support this growth, the OCM has been licensing approximately 30 dispensaries each month, forecasting that over 350 new shops could open in 2025. John Kagia, OCM’s policy director, emphasized the importance of this expansion in countering illegal operations.
Industry representatives are optimistic about the upcoming growth. Joe Rossi, a lobbyist for Park Strategies and advocate for several cannabis clients, remarked that doubling the number of stores would significantly hinder illicit operators. He noted that there is a sense of optimism as the cannabis industry appears to be improving after a challenging start.
Felicia Reid, Executive Director of the OCM, stated that they are refining sales projections based on market analysis and feedback. She highlighted that entrepreneurs in the cannabis market are attuned to consumer preferences, which will be key to the industry’s sustained growth.
According to OCM data, flowered or pre-roll marijuana constituted 45% of sales last year, followed by vapes at 28% and edibles, liquids, and pills making up the remaining 27%. The OCM also expects to grant licenses to hundreds of new cannabis processors and related businesses in the supply chain throughout the year.
While progress has been made in combating the illegal cannabis market, black market dealers continue to challenge legal sellers. Following the passage of a new state law last spring, state authorities, including the New York City Sheriff and the NYPD, have padlocked hundreds of illegal shops. The OCM reported that unlicensed retailers undermine the state’s efforts to create a fair market and pose public health risks since their products are not tested to OCM standards.
The OCM plans to significantly expand its enforcement measures to eliminate unregulated operations and target networks supplying illicit cannabis in New York. Despite the recent market surge, some cannabis industry experts are concerned about the potential for oversaturation, as too many licensed shops could compete against each other. One state official suggested limiting the number of dispensaries to 1,600 to ensure a balanced rollout.
