A recent study published in the International Journal of Drug Policy indicates that the legal cannabis market in Canada has significantly diminished the presence of the black market. Conducted by researchers analyzing data from over 5,600 participants, the study reveals that approximately 80% of cannabis sales in Canada now occur through legal channels.
In the year leading up to September 2022, Canadians spent a total of £6.72 billion on cannabis. Out of this amount, £5.23 billion was spent on legal cannabis sources. The research underscores the success of Canada’s 2018 legalization of cannabis, which aimed primarily to curb illegal sales.
The researchers employed demand-side data evaluation methods, comparing survey results with actual retail sales figures, achieving an alignment within 2 percentage points. This rigorous approach allowed them to estimate the market size accurately, moving beyond previous studies that relied solely on dried flower sales, a metric considered unreliable due to the variety of cannabis products now available, including concentrates and vape pens.
The study found that dried flower represented about 55% of legal cannabis expenditures, while other product categories made up the rest: concentrates accounted for 12%, oral liquids for 11%, vaping liquids for 10%, and edibles for 8%.
Since the launch of legal retail stores in October 2018, cannabis sales through legal avenues have shown a consistent upward trajectory, with no signs of plateauing even five years post-legalization. The research indicates a substantial shift from illegal to legal sources, fulfilling one of the primary objectives of the Cannabis Act.
Despite acknowledging certain limitations in their study, the authors concluded that the evidence strongly supports the notion that cannabis legalization has effectively reduced illegal sales and transitioned consumers toward legal options. They recommend further research to explore variations in provincial retail structures and regulations to understand their impact on market dynamics and consumption levels.
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